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anatomy of a value investment,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]
Skechers USA: anatomy of the value investment
greedy when other medication is fearful and fearful when other medication is greedy this really is the bottom line is Warren Buffett tip on how to become wealthy investing in the stock exchange. Time to take action and acquire stocks is in periods of high uncertainty and fear, prone to abnormally depress asset prices and create buying opportunities. In my opinion we're living this type of period right now. From high unemployment to the threat of terrorism, from bank scandals to much talked about corporate bankruptcies, the field of business and finance is unusually full of fear and uncertainty, and opportunities abound for those who know where to look.
In my opinion there's one such opportunity in Skechers USA, a mid-sized designer and marketer of casual and active footwear. The organization owns over 200 retail shops in america and abroad as well as sells through distributors, retail chains an internet-based. The company has recently entered aggressively the new toning shoes segment using its own concept: a kind of shoe having a particular geometry and technology that, allegedly,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], helps the wearer burn extra calories,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], tone-up various muscles and improve posture through the simple act of walking. nurses, shop assistants).
Skechers operates in the casual footwear industry,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], seen as a intense competition, modest margins and relatively unstable market shares. This challenging operating environment is reflected in Skechers financial results until 2009, where profitability continues to be somewhat volatile. Since 2009, however, the organization main point here has improved substantially thanks to the tone up segment, which is somewhat unique inside the footwear industry. This segment counts only three players: MBT,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Reebok and Skechers. The first kind focuses on top-of-the-line shoes (that cost as much as $250), while Reebok is mainly aimed toward the female athlete. Skechers, instead, has a tendency to focus on the average Jane with models priced at around $100. A definite market positioning for every player is nice news as companies compete with discipline, explaining stable prices and high profits. The absence of substitute products, the lack of concentration of both suppliers and clients, and also the presence of great entry barriers,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], bodes well for that long-term profitability from the tone up shoes segment.
Skechers competitive position is way from insurmountable, however, it benefits from a few factors that partially hedge its market share from potential entrants and existing players: patents and habit formation. The first kind bars others from producing competing shoes using the same technology; the second keeps current users from switching to competing brands (consumers often develop an attachment to goods they will use frequently for example shoes).
Particularly over these uncertain times, a company boasting an excellent product inside a healthy industry runs the chance of disappointing investors if it's not led by a competent, honest, and well incentivized management team. There are numerous reasons why I like about Skechers management: first, our prime level of insider ownership, which signals that it is interests are well aligned with those of other shareholders. Second, they has chosen to finance the company conservatively (Skechers can boast a pristine balance sheet, with without any debt and plenty of cash reserves). Third,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], management has chosen to grow the company organically instead of through acquisitions that, generally, tend to destroy instead of create value. men, children) in order to initiate brand-strengthening activities.
Obviously,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], no investment thesis is complete without analyzing the potential causes of upside as well as downside. One of the reasons why Skechers stock trades for such low multiples is that several investors believe the tone up shoes phenomenon to become a short-term fad. Some people question the claimed health benefits from the shoes and think that sales will drop sharply once customers lose interest in a creation that doesn't deliver. My own research tells me this is not so. I have tried these shoes myself and located them very comfortable, moreover, thousands of testimonials and many e-commerce sites seems to suggest a high level of client satisfaction with Shape Ups. Another possible threat lies in competition. The big giant in US footwear industry, Nike, has decided to avoid the tone up segment for now. If Nike decided to enter the market, it might reasonably create lasting damage to the incumbent companies given its enormous financial and marketing strength. This threat too, however,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], is not likely to materialize as Nike is positioned as the footwear company catering the aggressive, elite athlete (as opposed to the average person who wishes to workout without ever setting foot inside a gym). Vice versa, the potential upsides inside a Skechers investment are more realistic. Shape-ups have only a 9% penetration rate around women at the moment. Penetration rates have plenty of room to grow in our midst women, whereas men and children categories are still virtually untouched. Should Skechers have the ability to even slightly boost its presence during these huge markets, sales would increase substantially. Additionally, non-US sales are extremely low and the management team includes a stated commitment to target international sales. The distribution network is already in position, everything Skechers have to do is using a lot of it generous cash reserves for any large-scale advertising campaign overseas.
Valuation is the easy part with Skechers. In several many years of investing, I've come across not many companies with such outstanding fundamentals trading at such a low price. Price to earnings ratio is around 7x, price to book value is 1.3x, and the company has over $6 per share of money and virtually no debt. The organization is affordable from every possible perspective.
Timing is a vital element here. Stock price is depressed, investors are scared and also the company is reporting third quarter earnings next Wednesday (10/27). If, as I believe,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the outcomes are anything better than terrible, the stock is prime for any significant jump.
Obviously this is a risky gamble relatively speaking. We're referring to a small cap stock operating in a new segment as well as in a frightening operating environment. However, as Buffett puts it: future isn't clear, and you pay a very high price in the stock market for any cheery consensus. Uncertainty is the friend from the buyer of long-term values.
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