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One-hit wonders? Crocs (CROX -0.1%) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK -17.9%) give investors a painful lesson on how banking on a single product to drive growth in retail can end up in pain for the company, no matter how trend-setting the item may be at the time. Analysts note Under Armour (UA -0.7%) successfully branched out from its original niche, while Crocs and Deckers Outdoor stayed largely tied to their trademark product. 52-week return: Crocs -22.1%, Deckers Outdoor -71.7%, Under Armour +27.2%.
Retailers want to edge into the holiday shopping season as early as possible this year with most forecasts calling for steady - but not spectacular - spending numbers. Trends to watch: 1) Increased online couponing and promotional activity from fringe players. 2) Managing inventory should be easier with the season starting early and big data initiatives firing up which could help margins. 3) The calendar comes through for retailers with a lush 32-day window between Thanksgiving and Christmas extending the crucial part of the season.
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Thursday, October 4,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 2012,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 7:57 AM
The vibe flowing out of September sales reports from retailers is largely positive with big names such as Costo and Limited Brands showing brisk sales,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], while teen seller Zumiez (ZUMZ) knocked it out of the park with 18.6% growth. Although back-to-school season numbers look to be beating expectations,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the best gift for retail investors may be when Q3 reports roll in with companies showing improved margins as clearance sales were avoided and inventory controls clicked.
Under Armour (UA +0.1%) falls under the microscope of the professors who contribute scathing analysis at the Grumpy Old Accountants blog due to its booking of a $3.3M gain on a $63.8M acquisition of tangible and intangible assets that it claims came in under fair market value. Though the gain was socked away into the firm's SG expenses back in 2011,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], it's the kind of accounting scrutiny that has made things uncomfortable in the past for prior targets of the relentless accounting profs.
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Friday,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], March 16,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 2012,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 11:29 AM
Under Armour (UA -1.8%),[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], which has reflected in its lofty valuation, and that "near-term headwinds" exist. The firm is also starting coverage on rival Nike (NKE +0.5%) with a Buy, on a belief its track record and growth potential justify a premium valuation.
[Consumer, Quick Ideas, On the Move]
Friday, February 24, 2012, 9:44 AM
Under Armour (UA +1.6%) trades higher following an upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley. The firm claims a recent survey suggests Under Armour's footwear efforts can succeed, and predicts "sales growth and operational improvements" will make 2013 a "banner year." In addition, Morgan is launching coverage on Nike (NKE +0.3%) with an Equal-Weight.
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