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beioiog7y3l
Wysłany: Sob 12:47, 05 Paź 2013
Temat postu:
En observant les flux financiers, et en essayant de mesurer le poids économique
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et politique des masses d'argents accumulées dans les bilans des banques, des Hedges funds, des assureurs? et des différents opérateurs, on est vite pris de vertige.
Il est difficile de s'y retrouver, à moins de jongler avec les puissances de 10 en
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faisant attention au fait que le billion, qui représente mille milliards d'unités soit 10 puissance 12 dans la plupart des pays, ne vaut que 1 milliard soit 10 puissance 9 dans les pays anglo-saxon et au Brésil. Pour simplifier, on peut parler de téraeuros ou de téradollars, mais je trouve ce multiplicateur également difficile à appréhender.
Pour ma part, dans la mesure où je garde le meilleur souvenir d'un film
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réalisé en 1982 par Henri Verneuil et intitulé ? 1.000 milliards de dollars ?, je préfère essayer de prendre la mesure de ces masses financières en les comptabilisant en Dewaere. C'est ma fa?on de rendre hommage à un acteur et à un film qui ont
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très justement décrit? la situation, jugée préoccupante et dénoncée comme telle au début des années 80, dans laquelle les 30 premières entreprises mondiales réalisaient ensemble un chiffre d'affaire de Mille milliards de
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dollars, soit 1 Dewaere U.S. équivalant à 0,68 Dewaere E.U.
Encore s'agissait-il à l'époque d'économie réelle, avec des usines et des emplois à la clé. Depuis, le Chiffre d'affaires des 30 premières entreprises mondiales est passé à 5 Dewaere US et la somme de 1 Dewaere US est atteinte en additionnant les Chiffres d'affaires des seules trois premières? entreprises du classement.
Mais là où cela devient parlant, c'est lorsque l'on se rend compte que le PIB mondial culmine à hauteur de 50 Dewaere US, que celui de la l'Europe est de 14,7 D-US, alors que la France représente 2 D-US avec un de dette de 1.3 D-US.
Et cela devient édifiant à partir du moment où l'on intègre l'économie virtuelle : les 50 D-US du PIB mondial paraissent bien chétifs
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en regard des 2.024 D-US que pesait fin 2008 l'économie financière, avec ses 1.407 D-US de produits dérivés, ses 516 D-US de marché des changes et ses 51 D-US de marchés boursiers. Pour l'anecdote, ces masses d'argent essentiellement spéculatives génèrent des échanges quotidiens de 3,2 D-US sur l'ensemble des places financières de la planète, faisant
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ainsi "circuler"
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plus de l'équivalent du PIB mondial chaque mois.
Que valent les économies de Madame Michu, en Euros ou en Dollars, alors qu'il existe
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quelque part des masses d'argent sans commune mesure, mais bel et bien exigibles, dont les détenteurs peuvent décider du jour au lendemain de les transférer dans l'économie réelle, dans l'espoir de les préserver ?
Et la suggestion qui consiste à assujettir les transactions financières à un cocktail taxe Tobin + TVA(*), dans l'espoir de les tracer, de les freiner et de les fiscaliser aboutit à une aberration : pour la France dont le PIB est de 1,36 D-EU et dont le gouvernement gère un budget annuel de 0,4 D-EU, une TVA sur les opérations de haut de bilans et sur les produits dérivés rapporterait, en appliquant les ratios de l'économie réelle à l'économie virtuelle, 5,34 D-EU par an,
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soit plus de 10 fois le budget
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de l'Etat. Où est l'erreur ? Elle s'explique tout simplement par le constat suivant : les produits dérivés, et notamment
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les titrisations de titrisations, par exemple les C.D.S (Crédit Default Swap) construits
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sur des amalgames de C.D.O (Colateral Debt Obligation) sont essentiellement des conventions passées
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entre établissements financiers, sans que jamais un consommateur final ne vienne jouer le salutaire et indispensable r?le de destructeur. C'est pourquoi ils tournent en rond, grossissent et s'accumulent à l'infini, au point de menacer de provoquer un tsunami financier, évité de justesse entre le 15 septembre et le 15 octobre 2009 mais toujours aussi redoutablement probable.
Reviens Patrick, malgré tes mises en garde, nous sommes devenus fous !
(*)
cheapbag214s
Wysłany: Pią 15:02, 04 Paź 2013
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